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Country snapshots 2017-18: Poland
Investment to accelerate
poland,oecd,economy

GDP growth is projected to strengthen to around 3% annually in 2017-18, thanks to higher social transfers, low interest rates and rising disbursements of EU funds. Increasing disposable income and consumption, the switchover to the new budgetary period for EU funds and diminishing spare capacity should lead to an acceleration in investment. Stronger aggregate demand is expected to underpin a return to modest inflation.  

The central bank is projected to start increasing rates towards the end of 2017, as inflation picks up. New social spending was mostly financed by one-off revenues in 2016. Plans to increase tax compliance are welcome, and scaling down exemptions and special rates would improve efficiency, but lowering the retirement age would decrease potential growth and public revenues, which are already likely to be curbed by population ageing.      

GDP growth

2013

Current prices PLN billion

2016

  

2017

% real change

2018

   

1 656.8 2.6 3.2 3.1

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©OECD Observer No 308 Q4 2016